 |
|
| General publications |
- The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa andLatin America in 2055
By Peter G. Jonesa and Philip K. Thornton
The impacts of climate change on agriculture may add significantly to the development challenges of ensuring food security and reducing poverty. We show the possible impacts on maize production in Africa and Latin America to 2055, using high-resolution methods to generate characteristic daily weather data for driving a detailed simulation model of the maize crop. Although the results indicate an overall reduction of only 10% in maize production to 2055, equivalent to losses of $2 billion per year, the aggregate results hide enormous variability: areas can be identified where maize yields may change substantially. Climate change urgently needs to be assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targetedin research andd evelopment activities whose object is poverty alleviation.
Click here for publication in pdf
- Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation
By Marshall B. Burke, David B. Lobell, Luigi Guarino
Increased understanding of the substantial threat climate change poses to agriculture has not been met with a similarly improved understanding of how best to respond. Here we examine likely shifts in crop climates in Sub-Saharan Africa under climate change to 2050, and explore the implications for agricultural adaptation, with particular focus on identifying priorities in crop breeding and the conservation of crop genetic resources. We find that for three of Africa’s primary cereal crops – maize, millet, and sorghum – expected changes in growing season temperature are considerable and dwarf changes projected for precipitation, with the warmest recent temperatures on average cooler than almost 9 out of 10 expected observations by 2050. For the ‘‘novel’’ crop climates currently unrepresented in each country but likely extant there in 2050, we identify current analogs across the continent. The majority of African countries will have novel climates over at least half of their current crop area by 2050. Of these countries, 75% will have novel climates with analogs in the current climate of at least five other countries, suggesting that international movement of germplasm will be necessary for adaptation. A more troubling set of countries – largely the hotter Sahelian countries – will have climates with few analogs for any crop. Finally, we identify countries, such as Sudan, Cameroon, and Nigeria, whose current crop areas are analogs to many future climates but that are poorly represented in major genebanks – promising locations in which to focus future genetic resource conservation efforts.
Click here for publication in pdf
|
|
|
 |
|
 |
 |
Water-efficient maize boosts harvests for drought-hit Tanzanian farmers |
| |
Balisidya Jacob has been farming for many years, but it’s the novelty and size of his new crop of maize that is making him smile. ...
Read More |
|
Genetic maize seeds set for Kenyan market |
| |
23 February 2012: Genetically modified maize varieties will be available in Kenyan shops in the next two years. ...
Read More |
| |
Full News Listing ... |
|
|
|
|
